Statistical measurements of the zero-crossing time of a noisy sinewave

Standard deviation of difference in zero crossing times of two identical sinewaves distorted by narrowband noise behaves similarly to average value of error, but deviation is approximately one order of magnitude larger

What makes good management?

Wherever cost finding has failed to produce expected results, the failure has been that of management, not that of information. Costs are a basic part of the information requisite for the safe and intelligent conduct of business, but it is evident that cost information is of little value unless it is used by management as a guide to action. Hence comes the emphasis on management in the present work of the Committee. Management is the big question of the day in business. The Association is seeking earnestly and persistently to focus the attention of its members on management and to help develop them as managers. If it succeeds in even a small way, its expenditure of energy, time and money will be justified by result

Management and commodity profit and loss figures

In a casket business commodity profit and loss figures will show profits or losses netted by varnished caskets, cloth-covered caskets, metal caskets, rough boxes, varnished boxes, drygoods, robes and linings, vaults, hardware, fluids, and sundries, or by any other commodity departmental division that the manager may desire. With such figures and the apportionment of investment by commodity departments, the manager will have two important pieces of knowledge, namely: His earnings according to investment by commodity departments. The rate of turnover by commodity departments

Management and budgeting

In the years of comparative stability before the World War, simple cost accounting was a sufficiently effective tool to meet all requirements. Knowing his costs, a manager could plan with certainty, for business was on a cost plus, or, in some cases, a cost minus basis. But then followed a succession of rapid changes divided into three periods, the pre-war period, the war period and the post-war period. It quickly became evident to thinking managers that no accounting system confining itself to already established facts would satisfy the needs of these three periods and of the years ahead. That is how it has come about that budgeting and planning have pushed to the fore in the last few years as subjects of consequence to managers. Budgeting and planning have become a particularly conspicuous need since the beginning of the deflationary movement early in 1920. As long as the market was advancing and the demand for commodities was insatiable, the manager could be sure of success if his planning were only conservative enough. He did not have to be accurate. All he had to be sure of was that his errors would be in his own favor. Granting that they were in his own favor, he could make a multitude of mistakes and come out with a profit. In fact, there was a time when the more mistakes he made in his own favor the greater his profit. This was the era of easy money when price and quality were lost sight of in the shadow of the overwhelming demand for deliver

Global Phylogeography Suggests Extensive Eucosmopolitanism in Mesopelagic Fishes (Maurolicus: Sternoptychidae)

Fishes in the mesopelagic zone (200–1000 m) have recently been highlighted for potential exploitation. Here we assess global phylogeography in Maurolicus, the Pearlsides, an ecologically important group. We obtained new sequences from mitochondrial COI and nuclear ITS-2 from multiple locations worldwide, representing 10 described species plus an unknown central South Pacific taxon. Phylogenetic analyses identified five geographically distinct groupings, three of which comprise multiple described species. Species delimitation analyses suggest these may represent four species. Maurolicus muelleri and M. australis are potentially a single species, although as no shared haplotypes are found between the two disjunct groups, we suggest maintenance of these as two species. Maurolicus australis is a predominantly southern hemisphere species found in the Pacific, Indian and southern South Atlantic Oceans, comprising five previously allopatric species. M. muelleri (previously two species) is distributed in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. Maurolicus weitzmani (previously two species) inhabits the eastern equatorial Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and western North and South Atlantic. Maurolicus mucronatus is restricted to the Red Sea. No Maurolicus have previously been reported in the central South Pacific but we have identified a distinct lineage from this region, which forms a sister group to Maurolicus from the Red Sea

Early characterization of the severity and transmissibility of pandemic influenza using clinical episode data from multiple populations

The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics

Vulnerability pathways to mental health outcomes in children and parents during COVID-19

We examined pathways from pre-existing psychosocial and economic vulnerability to mental health difficulties and stress in families during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from two time points from a multi-cohort study initiated during the COVID-19 pandemic were used. Parents of children 6–18 years completed questionnaires on pre-COVID-19 socioeconomic and demographic factors in addition to material deprivation and stress due to COVID-19 restrictions, mental health, and family functioning. Youth 10 years and older also completed their own measures of mental health and stress. Using structural equation modelling, pathways from pre-existing vulnerability to material deprivation and stress due to COVID-19 restrictions, mental health, and family functioning, including reciprocal pathways, were estimated. Pre-existing psychosocial and economic vulnerability predicted higher material deprivation due to COVID-19 restrictions which in turn was associated with parent and child stress due to restrictions and mental health difficulties. The reciprocal effects between increased child and parent stress and greater mental health difficulties at Time 1 and 2 were significant. Reciprocal effects between parent and child mental health were also significant. Finally, family functioning at Time 2 was negatively impacted by child and parent mental health and stress due to COVID-19 restrictions at Time 1. Psychosocial and economic vulnerability is a risk factor for material deprivation during COVID-19, increasing the risk of mental health difficulties and stress, and their reciprocal effects over time within families. Implications for prevention policy and parent and child mental health services are discussed

Empirical Evaluation of the Difficulty of Finding a Good Value of k for the Nearest Neighbor

As an analysis of the classification accuracy bound for the Nearest Neighbor technique, in this work we have studied if it is possible to find a good value of the parmeter k for each example according to their attribute values. Or at least, if there is a pattern for the parameter k in the original search space. We have carried out different approaches based onthe Nearest Neighbor technique and calculated the prediction accuracy for a group of databases from the UCI repository. Based on the experimental results of our study, we can state that, in general, it is not possible to know a priori a specific value of k to correctly classify an unseen example

Building capacity for rigorous controlled trials in autism: the importance of measuring treatment adherence

Research groups across Europe have been networking to share information and ideas about research on preschool children with autism. The paper describes preliminary work to develop capacity for future multi-site randomized controlled trials of early intervention, with a specific focus on the need to measure treatment adherence where parents deliver therapy. The paper includes a review of randomized and controlled studies of parent-mediated early intervention from two sources, a recent Cochrane Collaboration review and a mapping of European early intervention studies in autism published since 2002. The data extracted focused on methods for describing parent adherence, that is, how and to what extent parents carry out the strategies taught them by therapists. Less than half of the 32 studies reviewed included any measure of parent adherence. Only seven included a direct assessment method. The challenges of developing pan-European early intervention evaluation studies are discussed, including choice of intervention model and of important outcomes, the need for translation of measurement tools and achievement of joint training to reliability of assessors. Measurement of parent-child interaction style and of adherence to strategies taught need further study

Manifesto for a European research network into Problematic Usage of the Internet

Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.The Internet is now all-pervasive across much of the globe. While it has positive uses (e.g. prompt access to information, rapid news dissemination), many individuals develop Problematic Use of the Internet (PUI), an umbrella term incorporating a range of repetitive impairing behaviours. The Internet can act as a conduit for, and may contribute to, functionally impairing behaviours including excessive and compulsive video gaming, compulsive sexual behaviour, buying, gambling, streaming or social networks use. There is growing public and National health authority concern about the health and societal costs of PUI across the lifespan. Gaming Disorder is being considered for inclusion as a mental disorder in diagnostic classification systems, and was listed in the ICD-11 version released for consideration by Member States (http://www.who.int/classifications/icd/revision/timeline/en/). More research is needed into disorder definitions, validation of clinical tools, prevalence, clinical parameters, brain-based biology, socio-health-economic impact, and empirically validated intervention and policy approaches. Potential cultural differences in the magnitudes and natures of types and patterns of PUI need to be better understood, to inform optimal health policy and service development. To this end, the EU under Horizon 2020 has launched a new four-year European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action Programme (CA 16207), bringing together scientists and clinicians from across the fields of impulsive, compulsive, and addictive disorders, to advance networked interdisciplinary research into PUI across Europe and beyond, ultimately seeking to inform regulatory policies and clinical practice. This paper describes nine critical and achievable research priorities identified by the Network, needed in order to advance understanding of PUI, with a view towards identifying vulnerable individuals for early intervention. The network shall enable collaborative research networks, shared multinational databases, multicentre studies and joint publications.Peer reviewe